Page 47 - Next Generation 2015 - Digtial Issue
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Next Generation Past, present and future
WORLD SEA TRADE SCENARIOS TO 2065 Source: Marecon
Billion tons trade Historic trade Scenario 1 Scenario 2
39 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
36
33
30
27
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995
1963
to a new system based on bulk and exploited. And the control of trade, So, what can we conclude?
containerised shipping. At the time, which under the industrial shipping The next 50 years will be just as
this was expected to produce bigger era in the 1960s was minutely planned chaotic — it’s the nature of the beast
ships and bigger shipping companies, by multinational companies, faded — and by 2065 we should expect a very
both of which occurred. away in the 1970s. different trading world. But somewhere
along the way, hopefully, the industry
This new system was very Today, shipping is controlled by the will find new ways to manage chaos,
successful in moving cargo through spot market. While this is an efficient especially the self-imposed variety.
the terminals and it reduced the cost of mechanism for cost minimisation, it is The key to the future lies in a more
freight in a remarkable way. certainly not a particularly good vehicle tightly controlled transport system.
for managing logistics. This means many things — better
But 50 years later the system information systems, more automation,
developed in the 1960s is still in place With a digital and computer maybe bigger companies; better
and beginning to look inadequate revolution that is now going on, it seems capacity planning and hopefully a
for the job in hand. The pressure to that the great challenge facing shipping much better career progression for those
get the cargo through the ports more in the next 50 years is to use information ashore and on board ship. A new world.
efficiently is still there, but there are to make the whole transport system Will this happen? Well, we have
new pressures from the environment tighter; more efficient; to eliminate the ability today to develop much more
and the need to serve an increasingly accidents; and to provide a more sophisticated information management
complex trading world, as the epicentre meaningful life for those who work in systems and that has to be the key to
of trade moves to a more global trading the industry, especially those on board managing chaos.
matrix. Extending today’s national the ships. These are important goals. Unfortunately, it is much easier
eBay and Amazon model to a global to order new ships than to build new
distribution system would require a Will this happen? Well, as Peter systems. We all like our independence
much more efficient and transparent Drucker said, “the best way to predict and shipping is an old-fashioned
system than we have today. the future is to change it”. This business — we like it that way. But
particular future is very much in the luckily there’s a new generation coming
In the early days “door-to-door” hands of the shipowners and, perhaps along and maybe the information
transport systems were a feature even more importantly, the cargo culture will be as natural to them as
of containerisation, but this aspect shippers. Unfortunately, the last 50 “trading ships not cargo” was to their
of the business was never really years has seen an alienation between predecessors.
implemented. Shipowners built bigger these two key parties that does not
ships and bigger terminals. But “door- provide a good foundation for building
to-door transport” was never really a global logistics system.
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