Page 58 - Next Generation 2015 - Digtial Issue

Next Generation The future
From improved maintenance to accuracy and availability of improved
improved fuel performance and sensing technology. This is set to
better crew management, the right digitise the ship.
data is increasingly becoming an
indispensable tool. But the drive for asset optimisation economies develop.
is likely to reach a level where remote
THE LONG-TERM VIEW: diagnostics becomes more common
NO HUMAN ERROR in the coming decade or two, and
practices seen in the offshore oil
One of the biggest features of this and gas sector will distill into other
era of change is low-cost, always shipping sectors, says our panel of
available, connectivity and the engineering experts.
FAST FORWARD 40 YEARS Tomas Aminoff, Wärtsilä director, technology strategy
HAVING a feel for the future is critical for knowing how to adapt, so
Wärtsilä frequently undertakes crystal ball gazing exercises, says
Wärtsilä director technology strategy Tomas Aminoff.
Wärtsilä is a company that has evolved and adapted to
change over its history. Today, it is one of the largest suppliers of
four-stroke engines and environmental equipment and services for
the shipping industry.
Mr Aminoff sees shipowners having bigger demands on
suppliers, and cargo interests having increased demands on
owners. This is the era for big ideas, he says.
For more than 50 years, Wärtsilä has manufactured internal
combustion engines, and while Mr Aminoff says the company will
still offer them in 30 years, he is less sure about 40 or 50 years
from now.
The driver for change will be fuel and its availability and cost.
There will be far more choice, making the industry less dependent
on liquid fossil fuels.
Individual vessels will also begin to have multiple energy
sources, so solar and wind will play a more important part in the
mix. If one compares it to the land-based power sector, where
there are the stable load power generators but wind and solar and
other auxiliary sources, coupled with the improved capabilities of
power storage technology, this will help create peak supply.
Critically, Mr Aminoff suggests when energy becomes more
expensive, it will likely impact logistics. Does it make sense, he
asks, to mine iron ore in one country, ship it to another to be
smelted to steel, then shipped to an automobile-maker’s plant
to become a car part, then assembled ahead of being shipped
halfway round the world again, to a consumer?
In the future, as global economies shift and manufacturing
costs even out, there will be changes in bulk shipment demand,
he says. It may be more economic to transport car components in
bulk and assemble the car closer to the consumer than to make
the car and ship it in a car carrier. Demand on vessel types will
change as focus increases on the overall cargo manufacturing
logistics.
56 | Lloyd’s List Next Generation 2015 | www.lloydslist.com
Crews may reduce in size as a result,
but the fundamental shifts will be deeper
than that. We know that trade patterns
will shift as global politics, wealth and
There is a lot of talk about how
3D printing could revolutionise
trade, assuming the materials used
in 3D printing are sufficiently robust.
Furthermore, assuming one gets class
approval, 3D printers on board vessels
One technology that some think will change shipping is the
3D printer, and Mr Aminoff agrees. But the first influence will be
how shipowners and managers acquire spare parts. The materials
used in 3D printers are evolving, making their use more accepted,
he says.
If 3D printers become an approved technology in a vessel, it
will reduce the need to carry or order costly spare parts, and will
ease maintenance and repair challenges.
3D printing will allow less qualified personnel to be on board a
vessel. This he says, is one of the roads to getting to an unmanned
ship, as is remote monitoring and smart decision-making by the
onboard technologies themselves.
Modern chemical engineering has led to the idea of onboard
equipment self-correcting or self-repairing. Pipes may have self-
correcting coatings that can be influenced to block a leak.
With the ability to create total asset oversight comes the
ability to see when the condition of one component impacts
another. So, for example, an external pump can automatically react
to an overheating engine.
As with others on our future scenarios panel, Mr Aminoff
says environmental regulations will play an increasing role, and he
thinks the industry has only seen the start of it.
As well as additional CO2 regulations, he sees most other
discharges and emissions from a ship coming under scrutiny. This
is another driver for a focus on other fuel types to be considered.
The most sustainable way is a fuel that fulfils future
requirements, without having after treatment. That may mean
renewable fuels are used, which then raises the question of
whether the environmental and sustainable footprint of a vessel
will no longer be seen in isolation, but as a part of a cargo owner’s
overall logistics chain.
As for nuclear power, Mr Aminoff thinks society will need 25
years without another land-based incident before it will accept
the idea of commercial ships having this power source, which will
need to be smaller, more reliable and cheaper. Even then, there will
likely still be resistance.