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12 March 2020 AgriBrasilis
one hand, the State provided In recent years, part of responsiveness by the States
the liquidity that ended up the growth (even low) of the for a recovery. It is enough to
inflating the speculative bubble European and North American look at how countries have
again without impacting the economies observed was due suffered more than China
real economy or inflation, to this relationship with the from the health crisis. Thus, if
on the other, it was forced to Chinese economy - centrally there is any impediment to a
weaken its capacity to act with planned and with a well-defined resumption of Chinese growth,
countercyclical fiscal policies global strategy - and not with it is with what speed the USA
and cut social policy resources the “less State” ideology that and Europe will emerge from
weakening health systems attacked Western economies. this economic and social crisis.
with elevation and allowing It is worth remembering Will they accept, as China does, a
precarious work. Hence, the that, in addition, China is strong action to increase public
scenario for the perfect storm the structuring center of the investment? On the western
was built. economies in its surroundings side, economies are dominated
The current crisis was born in the East, including Japan. The by large corporations, which
with the sudden stop of the Coronavirus crisis, by signaling makes it difficult to create
Chinese economy, given the to the speculative markets - an organic political strategy;
size and importance it has for mounted in a huge new bubble on the eastern side there
the world productive structure - a possible Chinese stagnation, is an economy organically
today, responsible for moving broke the fragile confidence structured and planned for
the value chains scattered in the that sustained it and dragged action.
global productive structures, the world into perhaps a crisis Brazil, on the other hand,
as well as for its structural greater than that of 2008. opted for a subordinate
connection with the economies Because China is a centrally insertion in this new world, as
of the USA and Europe. On planned economy, it could be a primary exporter with a high
the one hand, the USA and easier to recover, taking as dependence on the import of
Europe are the largest markets an example its ability to curb parts and components for its
for Chinese industrialized contagion by the virus in a industry. Therefore, its situation
products; on the other, it is, country with 1.3 billion people. is much more fragile since it
in part, the North American On the other side, the West is has no power of command over
and European corporations totally unprepared to face both its dynamics. It is inserted in
themselves that produce in a the health and the economic the international market as
joint venture system in China - crisis. By making his State an exporter of commodities,
sometimes with Chinese state “minimum” due to the reforms mainly soy and iron ore,
owned companies - and that of the last 30-20 years, it has products of low added value,
export to the USA and Europe. made it difficult to organize which generate few jobs and of
当前的危机源于中国经济 明确的全球战略——而不是 一方面，西方国家完全没有
的突然停止，原因在于中国 与"较少国家"的意识形态对 准备好如何应对健康和经济
在当今世界生产结构规模上 西方经济体进行攻击。值得 危机。过去20-30年的改革
的影响和重要性，它负责推 记住的是，中国也是包括日 使他们的国家成为“最低干
动分散在全球生产结构中的 本在内的东方经济体的结构 预”国家，这使各国难以组
价值链，并肩负与美国和欧 中心。冠状病毒危机向陷入 织复苏的工作。看这些国家
洲经济体的结构联系。一方 巨型新泡沫中的投机市场发 在健康危机中遭受的痛苦比
面，美国和欧洲是中国工业 出信号——中国的发展可能 中国还多便能明了。因此，
品的最大市场。另一方面， 停滞，这打破了支撑中国的 若有什么障碍阻碍中国恢复
部分北美和欧洲企业合并 微弱信心，并且世界可能会 发展，那么美国和欧洲将以
成合资企业（有时与中国国 被拖入比2008年还要大的 什么速度来摆脱这场经济和
企）在中国进行生产，并出 危机当中。 社会危机。他们会像中国一
口到美国和欧洲。 由于中国是中央计划经 样给力地接受增加公共投资
近年来，欧洲和北美经 济，它可能更容易恢复。在 吗？ 在西方国家，经济主
济体的部分经济增长（即使 一个拥有13亿人口的国家 要由大型企业主导，这使得
较低）得益于与中国经济的 里，中国遏制病毒蔓延的 制定有机的政治战略变得困
关系——中央的计划把控和 能力就是活生生的例子。另 难。而在中国，经济结构却
