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AgriBrasilis       March 2020                                                                 09



               However, the more intense      years, is the more intensive  of view, especially since there is
            soil use in two or more crops     use of irrigation feasible? It is  a lot of progress in land use in the
            in the same season raises some    increasingly  worrying, what  second harvest. As an example,
            questions, such as: How far can   impact this would have on the  in the Brazilian Midwest, only
            the second harvest increase the   water use? In addition, it is  45% of the soybean area is used
            risks of climatic, phytosanitary   questioned what mechanisms  with corn in the second harvest
            and market issues? Does the       can    be   implemented     to - a large part is fallow and can/
            crops’ succession bring negative   overcome these challenges  should be used to increase the
            impacts into the growth system    that are beyond the control of  supply of food to the Brazilian
            in long terms? What are the       the individual producer and,  and worldwide populations.
            agronomic challenges of the       therefore, need to have a good     Note:
            growth systems used today? Is     quality of agricultural and        ESALQ/USP:‘Luiz de  Queiroz’
            it possible to further increase   infrastructure programs and  College of Agriculture at  the
            the yield of the main crops       policies.                       University of São Paulo
            currently grown? At what             To support them, research       CEPEA: The Center for Advanced
            costs?  Given  the  worsening     is needed from the economic,  Studies in Applied Economics
            climate scenario of recent        financial, agronomic, etc., point
                                     Production of grains and cereals in Brazil, per crop:
                                       巴西粮食和谷物的产量,每种作物分布情况:




























                                             资料来源:应用经济学高级研究中心
                                                      Source: CEPEA

            的增加也就不利于在第一次                      年来日益恶化的气候情况,                     很大进展。例如,在巴西中
            收成中所播种的玉米的生长。                     更密集地使用灌溉是否可                      西部,在第二次收成中,只
                 然而,人们对同一季节里                  行?越来越令人担忧,这对                     有45%的大豆耕地用作玉米
            两种或多种作物利用土地集                      用水会有什么影响吗?此                      耕地,其中很大一部分是休
            约提出了一些问题,例如:                      外,有人问到可以采用哪些                     耕,而这些休耕地可以/应
            第二次收成能在多大程度上                      机制来克服这些挑战,而这                     该用来增加巴西和全世界人
            增加气候、植物检疫和市场                      些挑战却又是个体生产者无                     口的粮食供应。
            问题的风险?作物的演替是                      法把控的,因此需要有良好                        注:
            否会长期对作物生长系统产                      的农业基础设施计划与政                         ESALQ/USP:圣保罗大
            生负面影响?如今使用的生                      策。                               学路易斯•德•奎罗斯农业学
            长系统在农艺上面临哪些挑                         为了支持他们,需要从                    院
            战?有可能进一步提高目前                      经济、金融、农艺等方面进                        CEPEA:  应用经济学高级
            种植的主要作物的产量吗?                      行研究,特别是因为第二次                     研究中心
            需要付出什么代价?鉴于近                      收成时在土地利用上取得了
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