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AgriBrasilis March 2020 13
low quality and remuneration, had inflated them. consequences. Therefore, if the
therefore, without the capacity To complete, Brazil has Brazilian economy had already
to pull the Brazilian economy. been implementing a reform been weakened in the last 5
These sectors even have a policy that not only removes years, it would have to quickly
positive effect on the industrial the power of command over recover the instruments of
production of trucks, tractors, the economy from the State, but intervention to prevent the
agricultural machinery and leaves society as a whole much current crisis from ending in
equipment, but given the high more vulnerable to the loss catastrophe.
rate of imported components, of labor rights and the social In the external sector,
they also have a low multiplier welfare policy. It is fortunate structural and unilateral
effect. that the National Public Health dependence on the Chinese
As if that were not enough, System was not destroyed in economy is the biggest cause of
commodity exports were the midst of a pandemic. It Brazil’s vulnerability. China is
already suffering from the is enough to remember the very important for the country,
fall in prices, partly offset by weakening of the National but Brazil is not important
the increase in quantity and, Bank for Economic and Social for China. The main markets
now, breathes a little better Development (BNDES), which for Chinese products are not
with the monetary exchange in the 2008 crisis was the most in the country and, with the
devaluation. The fragility of responsible for mitigating its crisis of recent years, even the
an economy supported by the
export of primary products
was wide open already in 2019
with the drop in the trade
balance, the increase in the
Transaction Account Deficit
and, after 5 years of crisis and
stagnant economy, a strong
flight of capital. If it were not
for the volume of reserves
accumulated in the last 20
years, the external situation
could be more serious. The
crisis in Brazil, therefore,
is prior too and the fall in
speculative markets and only Rubens Sawaya, Professor at the Pontifical
opens up the false growth that Catholic University of São Paulo
Rubens Sawaya，圣保罗天主教大学教授
在有机地组织并按着计划进 的高度依赖，它们的乘数效 们错误地以为是投机市场导
行实施。 应也低。 致了危机的扩大。
另一方面，作为主要出口 似乎这还不够，商品出 要补充的是，巴西一直
国，产业却高度依赖配件和 口已经受到价格下跌的影 在执行一项改革政策，该
零部件的进口，巴西选择从 响，但数量增加抵消了部分 改革政策不仅剥夺了国家对
属于这个新世界。因此，因 损失。如今，随着汇率贬 经济的支配权，而且使整
不能控制发展的动态，巴西 值，商品出口稍微好了一 个社会更容易丧失劳工权利
的情况更加脆弱。巴西以低 点。2019年，随着贸易失 和社会福利政策。幸运的
附加值产品（主要是大豆和 衡、经常项目赤字的增加， 是，国家公共卫生系统在
铁矿石）的商品出口国身份 及在5年危机、经济停滞、 大流行病中没有被摧毁。
进入国际市场，因此几乎没 和大量资本外逃后，靠初级 铭记国家经济和社会发展银
有就业机会，回馈和报酬较 产品出口支撑的脆弱经济已 行（BNDES）作用弱化的
低，也就没有拉动巴西经济 经大为开放。如果不是过去 教训就已足够（该银行在
的能力。而这些产业甚至对 20年累积的储量，外贸情况 2008年的危机中对减轻危
卡车，拖拉机，农业机械和 可能更为严重。因此，巴西 机带来的后果负有最大的责
设备的工业生产产生积极影 的危机在冠状病毒之前就已 任）。因此，如果巴西经济
响，但是鉴于对进口零部件 发生，投机市场的下跌让人 在过去5年里已经被削弱，
