Page 32 - Abstract Book BICoSEH 2022

FORECASTING WORLD COCOA PRICES USING THE ARIMA MODEL
(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)

Refni Wahyuni
Universitas Andalas
Email: refni_w@yahoo.com

Abstrak: The Indonesian economy is supported by the contribution of various
sectors, one of which is the agricultural sector. Commodities that are the
mainstay of export demand are agricultural commodities with the plantation
subsystem. Cocoa is one of the export-oriented plantation products which is
Indonesia's leading commodity in the global region. Knowledge about future
cocoa price projections needs to be done to analyze risk control strategies and
strategies to determine the level of profit that will be obtained. The model used
to estimate cocoa prices is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average) model. This study aims to map out the appropriate model for
forecasting the monthly world cocoa price and analyze the monthly world cocoa
price forecast using the ARIMA model. The type of data used in this study is
secondary data, namely monthly data on world cocoa prices from January 2018
to February 2021 in USD units. The data in this study were obtained from the
World Bank. This study uses the help of data processing software such as
Microsoft Excel and R. The result of this research is that the ARIMA model can
be used to predict the monthly world price of cocoa with the finding that the
monthly price of cocoa in the future is influenced by the monthly price of cocoa
in the previous period. The monthly world cocoa price data for the period
January 2018 to February 2021 does not have an up or down trend. Thus, the
monthly world cocoa price data is stationary at its level

Kata Kunci: World Cocoa, Forecasting, Arima Model

26 | BICoSEH Pascasarjana UIN Mahmud Yunus Batusangkar